Forecast Verification:
A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
Ian Jolliffe, David Stephenson
Résumé
For more than 100 years, meteorologists have been making forecasts of weather and climatic events. In order to judge the quality of these forecasts and improve forecasting systems, scientists working in this field have developed and applied many different verification and evaluation techniques and scores. Forecast verification is concerned with judging how good are these systems and forecasts.
This book begins with an introduction to the subject of forecast verification and a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast before moving on to the main chapters, where each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand). This book then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, and finally moves on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.
Key features of this book includes:
- An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies
- An up to date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses
- Practical advice given by some of the world's leading forecasting experts
- Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation
- Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms
This book is suitable for postgraduates and researchers in forecasting studies, climatology, meteorology and those in the atmospheric oceanic and environmental science community. It is also a useful supplementary textbook for undergraduates in environmental science, climatology and meteorology.
Contents- 1. Introduction (I Jolliffe and D Stephenson)
- 2. Basic Concepts (J Potts)
- 3. Binary Events (I Mason)
- 4.Categorical Events (R. Livezy)
- 5. Continuous Variables (M. Déqué)
- 6. Verification of Spatial Fields (W. Drosdowsky and H. Zhang)
- 7. Probability and Ensemble Forecasts (Z. Toth et al)
- 8. Economic Value and Skill (D. Richardson)
- 9. Forecast Verification: Past, Present and Future (Stephenson and Jolliffe)
- Glossary
- References
- Author Index
L'auteur - Ian Jolliffe
Ian Jolliffe is Professor of Statistics at the University of Aberdeen. He is author or co-author of over 60 research papers and three other books. His research interests are broad, but aspects of principal component analysis have fascinated him and kept him busy for over 30 years.
L'auteur - David Stephenson
David Stephenson, artiste photographe, est aujourd'hui le coordinateur du programme d'études de troisième cycle de l'université des Beaux-Arts de Tasmanie. Ses photographies ont été fréquemment exposées et sont conservées dans des collections tant publiques que privées, qu'il s'agisse de la National Gallery of Australia, du Musée d'art moderne de San Francisco ou du Metropolitan Museum de New York. Il vit à Hobart en Australie. Victoria Hammond, historienne de l'art, est l'auteur de nombreuses publications, dont les Letters from St. Petersburg. Elle vit à Melbourne, en Australie. Keith F. Davis, directeur du Hallmark Fine Arts Programs, est l'auteur de nombreux livres sur la photographie, parmi lesquels An American Century of Photography et The Art of Frederick Sommers. Il vit à Kansas City.
Caractéristiques techniques
| PAPIER | |
| Éditeur(s) | Wiley |
| Auteur(s) | Ian Jolliffe, David Stephenson |
| Parution | 31/03/2003 |
| Nb. de pages | 240 |
| Format | 17 x 25 |
| Couverture | Broché |
| Poids | 800g |
| Intérieur | Noir et Blanc |
| EAN13 | 9780471497592 |
| ISBN13 | 978-0-471-49759-2 |
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