Uncertain Judgements
Eliciting Expert's Probabilities
Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow
Résumé
An aim of much statistical research is to wring as much from data as is possible. Improved usage of expert opinion can add significantly more information than a slight improvement in efficiency through better data analysis techniques. This book presents a range of tried and tested elicitation methods to enable statisticians to get make the most of expert opinion
An elicitation method forms a bridge between an expert's opinion and an expression of these points in a statistically useful form. This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and psychologists provides an introduction to the subject and a detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the reader through the design of an elicitation method and details examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences disciplines.
L'auteur - Caitlin E. Buck
L'auteur - Paul Garthwaite
Paul Garthwaite, Department of Statistics, Open University, UK
Sommaire
- Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement
- The elicitation Context
- The psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty
- The Elicitation of Probabilities
- Eliciting Distributions - General
- Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution
- Eliciting distributions - Uncertainty and Imprecision
- Evaluating Elicitation
- Multiple experts
- Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion
- Guidance on Best Practice
- Areas for Research
Caractéristiques techniques
PAPIER | |
Éditeur(s) | Wiley |
Auteur(s) | Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow |
Parution | 02/08/2006 |
Nb. de pages | 350 |
Format | 16 x 24 |
Couverture | Broché |
Poids | 610g |
Intérieur | Noir et Blanc |
EAN13 | 9780470029992 |
ISBN13 | 978-0-470-02999-2 |
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