Triumph of the Optimists

101 Years of Global Investment Returns

Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton, Elroy Dimson

352 pages

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Indisponible

Résumé

Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy.

Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful.

The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa.

Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.

All three authors are at the London Business School. Elroy Dimson is Professor of Finance. Paul Marsh is Esmée Fairbairn Professor of Finance. Mike Staunton is Director of the London Share Price Database.

Contents

Part One: 101 years of global investment returns

Introduction and overview
World markets: today and yesterday
Measuring long-term returns
International capital market history
Inflation, interest rates, and bill returns
Bond returns
Exchange rates and common-currency returns
International investment
Size effects and seasonality in stock returns
Value and growth in stock returns
Equity dividends
The equity risk premium
The prospective risk premium
Implications for investors
Implications for companies
Conclusion

Part Two: Sixteen countries, one world

Our global database
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
The Netherlands
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
World

Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Princeton University Press
Auteur(s)	Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton, Elroy Dimson
Nb. de pages	352
Format	22 x 28,2
Couverture	Relié
Poids	1756g
Intérieur	Quadri
EAN13	9780691091945
ISBN13	978-0-691-09194-5